Today I’m looking into Alex Green’s latest pitch about his “No. 1 Signal” to follow when stocks collapse, which he suggests could signal when the market has bottomed.
And during the presentation, not only did Green talk about this “signal,” but he teased three companies that he believes are “significantly undervalued.”
The names of each company (and the details of his recommendations) are revealed in a report called “The 90-Day Payday: 3 Must-Own Stocks With HUGE Insider Buying,” which comes with a subscription to his $1,995 Insider Alert service.
But I managed to uncover two of Green’s so-called “90-Day Payday” picks by looking into his clues. And in this post, I’ll show you exactly what I found.
Breaking Down Alex Green’s “No. 1 Signal”
Alex Green’s latest pitch centers around the idea that, while some stocks could fall further, “every bear market hits a bottom” at some point. And according to Green, that “bottom” could come sooner than most people think.
“… we’re here because every bear market hits a bottom… and the bottom of this market might come much sooner than you expect.”
How would he know?
Well, first and foremost, nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future, no matter how good they are.
But Alex Green has made similar predictions in the past regarding market bottoms, and he discussed one of these in the presentation, which related to 2009.
And apparently, the reason he believed the market had bottomed was due to a “signal” he watches that tells him when stocks are likely to bottom out.
“In 2009, for example, when stocks bottomed out at 6,600 points in March… most people didn’t expect it.
“They assumed the carnage was going to continue for many more months, perhaps years.
“But I suspected the bottom had hit.”
“How did I know?
“Because there is a single signal I watch for that tells me the moment stocks are likely to bottom out.
“And for many stocks that have dropped by huge amounts, that signal is appearing again today.”
What “signal” is Green talking about?
As the presentation continued, Alex Green revealed that the signal he’s referring to is insider buying, where company CEOs and executives buy their own shares.
“… insider purchases are the No. 1 indicator you should pay attention to during bear markets.”
Alex Green isn’t talking about trading based on inside information (which is illegal). Instead, he’s talking about tracking what company insiders are buying based on publicly available information, which he uses to find stocks he likes.
And according to Alex Green, he has developed a system that he has built over decades, which is designed to help him filter this information as it comes out.
“Even though you can technically look up all insider purchases on something called the EDGAR database…
“It’s not exactly easy for the average person to sift through.
“More than 1,000 Form 4s flood into EDGAR every day.”
“But the good news is…
“Since insiders who buy or sell their own shares must file through this database…
“I’m able to track every single insider purchase made daily.
“And when these filings take place, I’m among the first to know about it.”
Alex Green says he looks at four things when sifting through information about company insider buying. First, he looks for buys over $1 million. Second, he looks for cluster buying (more than one company exec buying). Third, he sees if there’s more insider buying than selling. And fourth, he says he looks at the track record of who’s buying.
As for what he’s tracking now, Green says that “well-known insiders are loading up on their shares at the fastest pace in a decade” as we speak.
And he specifically teased three companies, which he says each have strong management, are “significantly undervalued,” and that insiders are buying.
“… these companies are healthy with strong management…
“And, from what I’ve seen, they are significantly undervalued at current prices.
“There’s no question in my mind they’re going to rise in value…
“And the insiders have just pushed their chips in, signaling that NOW is the time to act.”
He also said that “major insider purchases” have recently been reported for each of his three picks, and he believes each one is “an urgent buying opportunity.”
So with all that said, let’s look at what companies he’s bullish on.
What Are Alex Green’s “90-Day Payday” (aka “Insider Buying”) Stock Picks?
All told, Alex Green teased three of his “insider buying” picks in the presentation, which he also dubs “90-Day Payday” stocks because, according to the presentation, 90 days is typically the longest he aims to be in one of these plays.
And in the following sections, I’ll walk you through the clues he shared about each pick and share my guess on what I think two of them are.
Pick 1 (AAT)
Here’s what Alex Green said about his first pick:
“The first is a real estate investment trust (or REIT)…
“The same type of real estate that Warren Buffett favors.
“First quarter net income increased nearly 680% over last year…
“An unprecedented jump.
“Meanwhile, after a pandemic slowdown, the company is back on track for pre-COVID-19 profitability levels in 2022.
“And it just raised the dividend by 7%.
“The CEO is PILING in.
“He just bought $3.3 million worth.
“And remember how I want to see more buys than sells in a company?
“Well, look at the table.”
[shows a table of “insider” buying]
“It’s all buys. No sells at all.”
Based on those clues, we’re looking for a REIT with a Q1 net income increase of almost 680% over last year that has just raised its dividend by 7%. And the chart Green shared shows that the CEO buying shares is Ernest Rady, which made this one very easy to uncover.
Long story short, it looks like Green’s first pick is American Assets Trust (AAT).
AAT is a real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in California that has been acquiring, improving, developing, and managing commercial and residential real estate for over 50 years.
And here’s an overview of why I think this is Green’s first pick:
- For starters, AAT is a REIT, and the CEO is Ernest Rady.
- Second, Green’s “net income increase” clue lines up (roughly) with what’s shown in this AAT earnings report.
- Third, the company’s dividend has recently increased from $0.30 per share to $0.32 per share, which represents an almost 7% increase, as Green suggested.
- And finally, Ernest Rady has been buying shares of AAT recently.
Here are the clues Alex Green shared about his second pick:
“The second play is a company with $39 billion in assets with forecasts sending it as much as 116% higher in the coming year.
“It just saw cluster buying between the CEO, CAO, a director and an executive vice president.
“Collectively, they put in over $1 million on the same day, and it’s no wonder…
“Prices are so cheap right now that the upside here is more than we’ve seen since early 2020.
“And obviously, the insiders, who know the most about the company, agree.
“This stock is an absolute bargain.”
I’m not sure what this pick is. There simply aren’t enough clues to narrow this one down enough. But feel free to comment below if you have any ideas on what it might be.
Pick 3 (CVNA)
Here’s what Alex Green said about his third pick:
“The third has the most insider buying of all.
“Together, five major insiders have bought $47 million worth of shares since May.
“That level of confidence tells me they believe the stock is extremely undervalued.
“Recently, the company forecast significant core earnings for 2023…
“And analysts place the median 12-month price forecast at $70, nearly 200% above the stock’s current price…
“While the high forecast has it running as much as 800% higher on the next year.”
Based on those clues, we’re looking for a company with a share price of around $25 that analysts have forecasted could hit up to $225 in the next year or so, and one that “insiders” have bought $47 million worth of shares of since May.
What could it be?
I think this company is Carvana (CVNA).
The first clue I looked into was the one about insiders buying $47 million worth of shares since May, and that search brought up several companies, one of which was Carvana.
And after analyzing the information shown on this Yahoo Finance page, Carvana seems to (roughly) line up with what Alex Green said regarding insider buying from May 2022 to now (July 2022).
I also looked at the company’s stock price, which is currently sitting at around $27.
So that’s a match, too.
And finally, I researched what analysts are forecasting in terms of its future share price. And that led me to this page on barchart.com, which shows that some analysts’ price targets are as high as $225. Although, as a side note, some targets are as low as $15, which shows how much these forecasts can vary from analyst to analyst.
So, based on my research, I believe Alex Green’s third pick is Carvana.
What does the company do?
Carvana is an Arizona-based online used car retailer, and it’s known for its used car vending machines, which from what I understand, is an option that allows customers to collect the vehicle they’ve purchased instead of walking into a traditional dealership.
As for the company’s stock, it’s trading significantly lower than it was a year ago, which, assuming my guess is correct, may help explain why Green believes it’s “extremely undervalued.”
How can you find out more?
The best way to learn more about Alex Green’s three picks would be to see his report called “The 90-Day Payday: 3 Must-Own Stocks With HUGE Insider Buying.”
That’s a research report he’s put together that shows you what companies he’s teasing, why he’s bullish, and exactly what his recommendation involves.
However, as you may already know, the only way to access that report is to join his service, Insider Alert, which costs almost $2k for 12 months worth of access.
Recommended: Go here to see my #1 rated stock advisory of 2023
Is Insider Alert Worth $1,995?
Insider Alert is an Oxford Club investment research service run by Alx Green, and its main focus is on companies that meet Green’s “inside buying” criteria.
As a subscriber of the service, you get the report I mentioned earlier, other reports he’s created for Insider Alert members, and one to two new “insider picks” each month.
Alex Green says he aims to stay in these so-called “insider” plays for 90 days, so this is a faster-paced trading-style service. And at $1,995 per year, it’s not exactly cheap.
But according to Green, he has a pretty decent track record:
“All told, our average trade since 2001 – through bull and bear markets is nearly 16%, while the S&P over the same time frame as our trades was a measly 2%.”
It’s unclear if that’s Alex Green’s overall average across all of his services or if that’s just related to his Insider Alert service.
And regardless, there’s no guarantee you’ll make money following Green’s picks because past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, as they say.
Still, based on that, Alex Green has a decent track record overall.
And aside from monthly picks, subscribers also get access to Green’s “Insider Screener,” which appears to be a tool you can use to identify the “insider buying” he discussed in the presentation. And he’s put together a three-part video series called Options the Easy Way, which suggests that the service involves using options.
Is it worth it?
I’m not a member of Insider Alert, so I don’t know from personal experience if it’s worth it or not. But I have looked into numerous presentations he’s released and identified a bunch of his stock picks in the process, which you can get the details on here.
I’m personally not a fan of short-term trading, so even though I think Alex Green seems like one of the better “gurus” out there, I prefer long-term investing, which is what he focuses on in his (much cheaper) flagship Oxford Communique service.
Nevertheless, Insider Alert could be worth a look if you’re interested in learning more about Alex Green’s strategy and accessing his latest “insider” picks.
Just keep in mind that there are no refunds with this service. And again, there’s no guarantee you’ll make money as a subscriber, as with any service.
Keeping track of what “insiders” like company CEOs and directors are buying is an interesting strategy and one Alex Green seems to be especially focused on.
People buy stocks that go down all the time, so “insider buying” doesn’t necessarily “signal” that we’ve hit a bottom in the market. Nor does it mean that a given stock will rise in price in the future. But it’s an interesting strategy nonetheless.
As for Green’s three picks, I’m not sure what the second company is, but my research suggests that ATT and CVNA are among them. So I hope my sleuthing has proven useful, and if you have any thoughts you’d like to add, drop a comment below.
Thanks for reading.