Today I’m looking into a presentation about a “new warning” from Mark Skousen regarding inflation, rising rates, and a “$0.20 option trade” he’s recommending.
For whatever reason, Mark Skousen himself wasn’t featured in the presentation; the whole thing was presented by Roger Michalski of Eagle Financial Publications.
Nevertheless, Michalski said he has a “shocking forecast from Dr. Mark Skousen,” which apparently has to do with an “inflation tsunami” coming that could trigger a “stock market catastrophe” the likes of which we’ve never seen before.
The whole thing was pretty grim. And no doubt, some of the “doom and gloom” is part of the marketing angle used to sell Mark Skousen’s TNT Trader service.
Still, Michalski made some interesting points, and I was curious to know which company Skousen was tracking, so I dug deeper to find out. And in this post, I’ll show you what I found, including the name of the company I believe the presentation’s teasing.
But first, let’s unpack Mark Skousen’s “shocking forecast.”
What Is Mark Skousen Predicting?
This is the first time I’ve come across a presentation that didn’t feature the person making the recommendation (i.e., Mark Skousen).
It’s unclear why, but Roger Michalski, the guy in charge of Eagle Financial Publications, essentially relayed what Skousen is supposedly predicting.
Nevertheless, according to Michalski, Dr. Mark Skousen is forecasting “an inflation calamity that will destroy the value of every dollar you earn, save and invest.”
Michalski suggests that the reason Skousen believes inflation will rise has to do with the trillions of dollars being “pumped into the economy,” which could destroy not only the value of the money itself but trigger a financial meltdown and recession.
Here’s how Roger Michalski puts it:
“The $14 trillion (and counting) the government pumped into the economy to combat the virus is already causing an unprecedented wave of inflation. One that could trigger one of the biggest financial meltdowns the world has ever seen — bigger than the Great Recession, perhaps even bigger than the Great Depression.
Unless you take action NOW, you will find your wealth destroyed as the coming inflation tsunami triggers a stock market catastrophe the likes of which we have never seen before.
That’s exactly what economist Mark is now forecasting — an inflation calamity that will destroy the value of every dollar you earn, save and invest.”– Roger Michalski (source: markskousen.com/offer/tnt-trade-alert-v2)
Why is Mark Skousen (apparently) so bearish right now?
I can’t speak for Mark Skousen but based on what Roger Michalski said in the presentation, his forecast centers around a belief that we’ll see rising inflation and rising interest rates.
On the inflation front, the presentation suggests that Skousen is mainly concerned about money being “pumped into the economy” and continued supply chain disruptions, leading to the money “chasing fewer and fewer goods.”
“When you add everything up, all that money the government has pumped into the economy is chasing fewer and fewer goods.
The chain reaction is already lifting consumer prices. You need only go to the grocery store or fill up your car with gas to know that inflation’s rising at the fastest rate in the last 40 years… it’s out of control.”– Roger Michalski
As for rising interest rates, it’s no secret that the Fed has been raising rates lately to rein in inflation, and the general consensus seems to be that they’ll continue doing so for some time. We’ve also seen the bond market sell-off, resulting in rising rates.
And the presentation suggests that Skousen believes rates, along with inflation, will continue rising, causing an epic market sell-off in the future.
According to Michalski, Mark Skousen can’t tell us how fast inflation or interest rates will rise, but he believes the fallout will be devastating.
“And while Mark can’t tell you how fast prices, inflation and interest rates will rise, he will tell you this:
The Fallout Will Be Devastating
The result will crush the bond market and send interest rates surging even more than they already have.
Stocks will fall further and deeper than anything we’ve witnessed recently. You need only connect the dots to understand why.
As interest rates rise, trillions in low-interest-rate bonds will collapse in value as investors rush to sell them and buy higher-rated bonds.
Rising interest rates will crush the real estate market as well, as a decade of low interest rates was the fuel behind the bull market in home prices.
The shock wave will crush the earnings of millions of companies as well, as their cost of borrowing will shoot through the roof.– Roger Michalski
I’ve learned to take these presentations with a grain of salt, but Michalski made some interesting points, some of which are hard to argue.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s right. Or, more specifically, that Skousen’s right. Because nobody can predict the future. But if Skousen’s forecast is right, things could get ugly.
Skousen’s not the only one calling for a recession, either. According to Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank is forecasting a recession in 2023 caused by rising rates and Fed tightening.
Although Skousen’s take seems a lot more ominous.
Nevertheless, the presentation points out that “crisis creates great opportunities,” and according to Michalski, “it’s not too late for you to take action to protect yourself.”
In the next section, I’ll break down what company Mark Skousen is most likely recommending, based on the clues Michalski shared in the presentation.
What’s Mark Skousen’s Inflation Pick and “$0.20 Option” Trade?
Mark Skousen shares his inflation pick with subscribers of his TNT Trader service, so joining that service is the only way to find out for sure what he’s recommending.
However, I looked into the clues Michalski shared in the presentation about Skousen’s pick, and I found a company that matches.
Before I get to what it is, here’s an overview of Michalski’s clues:
“That is why some of Wall Street’s fattest cats have, collectively, backed up the truck to add Mark’s top inflation play to their holdings.
They see the handwriting on the wall that inflation is about to explode.
That’s why together they have invested close to $7 billion in it. With — get this — over a billion stake taken by Blackstone.”
“The company that’s Mark’s #1 inflation-busting pick sports a rock-solid 7.18% dividend. That’s why these insiders have gone all in — thanks to the company’s explosive growth and inflation-beating income.
Better still, this company has increased or maintained their dividend amount every quarter since July of 2014.
And it’s the one company in the energy industry that’s still able to provide consistent transport and shipping of its’ products.
It’s virtually supply-chain proof.”
“As you can see from the chart below, this company’s stock jumped nearly 20% YTD. Even with all the highs and lows of the market recently.
Mark sees the company’s stock price continuing to rise, jumping even more once second-quarter earnings numbers are rolled out.”– Roger Michalski
Michalski also shared a chart of the top institutional investors in the company, which showed how many shares Blackstone Inc and others hold in the company.
He also shared a price chart, showing that Skousen’s pick is trading at around $26.
What could it be?
Figuring this one out wasn’t very difficult. All I did was “Google” the number of shares the institutional investors held based on the chart Michalski shared, and that led me to a page on the Yahoo Finance website showing the top institutional holders for Enterprise Products Partners, which matches what Michalski showed in the presentation.
Furthermore, Enterprise Products Partners’ stock (ticker EPD) is trading at around the $26 mark as of writing (May 2022).
The company also matches Michalski’s clue about dividends and the one about the company being in the energy industry because Enterprise Products Partners is a Texas-based midstream natural gas and crude oil pipeline company.
So, to sum it up, I believe Skousen’s pick is Enterprise Products Partners (EPD).
What about the “$0.20 inflation trade” aspect?
According to the presentation, subscribers of TNT Trader get the “full details on Mark’s $0.20 inflation trade” and his “buy and target prices on the underlying stock.” So it seems as though Skousen’s recommending both the stock and options trade for this company.
Michalski didn’t elaborate much on the option trade aspect of Skousen’s pick, but he did refer to it as a “$0.20 option” and talked about the price he thinks it could hit.
“And, as I said before, it’s $0.20 option is currently poised to rocket as high as $0.80 in the next 90 days.
That’s a 300% gain in a single quarter.”– Roger Michalski
There are numerous possibilities as to what it could be. So without joining the service, there’s no way to know for sure what particular options contract is being teased.
However, there are several things we can deduce from the presentation.
For example, Michalski referred to Skousen’s pick as a “$0.20 option” and mentioned a 90-day timeframe. He also shared the following clue (as well as a price chart showing the stock trading at $26.08 per share), which suggests that Skousen believes the underlying stock could potentially reach around $31 in the next 90 days or so.
“So, along with this $0.20 option trade, you’ll also get Mark’s buy price on the underlying stock.
If you are a conservative investor, you can make today’s trade by buying the stock at Mark’s buy-below price, and be looking for a 20% gain in the next 90 days.”– Roger Michalski
Based on that and everything else I’ve discussed so far, Skousen’s options pick could potentially be (and this is only a guess) a September 2022 call option for Enterprise Products Partners with a strike price of $31, which is currently trading at under $0.20.
I could absolutely be wrong on this. I am NOT a member of Skousen’s TNT Trader service, so what I’m sharing here is just a guess. But this seems to be the closest match based on what Michalski said about Skousen’s pick in the presentation.
I should also point out that nothing on this site should be taken as advice about what you should or shouldn’t do regarding any investment. Period. I just wanted to see what Skousen was pitching and what I’ve shared is my best guess based on the presentation.
What’s more, even if I am right, Skousen could have specific instructions in place regarding his pick and may share updates on it, which only members of his service would see.
So if you really want to know what Skousen’s teasing and get all the details on his recommendation, it’s probably best to subscribe to his service, TNT Trader.
Recommended: Go here to see my #1 rated stock advisory of 2023
What Is TNT Trader?
TNT Trader is a weekly trading service run by Mark Skousen, and according to Roger Michalski, it’s “designed to profit from market catalysts.”
“If you’ve never seen TNT Trader before, let me explain what it is: It’s a one-of-a-kind trading service that’s designed to profit from market catalysts that can cause stock prices to move dramatically.”– Roger Michalski
According to the presentation, Mark Skousen recommends both the underlying stock and associated option with this service, so it caters to people who are interested in following his options trade ideas and regular stock picks.
How does it work?
As mentioned, I’m not a member of this service, but the gist of how it works is that, upon signing up, subscribers get access to Mark Skousen’s trade ideas. And from there, you can decide which recommendations you want to follow using your trading account.
The website states that Skousen shares new trade ideas each month that include his “buy, strike, and target prices,” and he updates subscribers every week. You also get access to his recommended portfolio of active trades and access to a members-only website.
How much does it cost?
According to the presentation, a subscription to TNT Trader usually costs $1,995, but as part of the presentation, they’ve reduced it to $995. The site also says that the service comes with a 30-day refund policy.
Who Is Mark Skousen?
Dr. Mark Skousen is a renowned economist with a Ph.D. in monetary economics who, according to Roger Michalski, has a “rock-solid reputation for making people money for more than 40 years.”
Skousen’s flagship service is called Forecasts & Strategies, a service that he began editing in 1980. However, he also runs a handful of other services, including TNT Trader, Home Run Trader, Fast Money Alert, and Five Star Trader.
Aside from sharing his trade ideas and stock picks, Mark Skousen has an extensive academic background, authored numerous best-selling books on finance and economics, won prestigious awards related to his work, and his commentaries have been featured on ABC News, CNBC, and Fox News (among others).
His list of accomplishments appears to go well beyond that, too. And according to the website, he’s accurately predicted many stock market moves over the years.
For example, Roger Michalski states that Skousen called the 1987 stock market crash, the 2008 great recession, and the crash in early 2020. Michalski also listed a host of stocks Skousen has recommended that appear to have seen considerable gains.
Of course, that doesn’t mean all of his picks have worked out, and nobody can predict the future, so there’s no guarantee you’ll make money following Skousen’s recommendations. But I think it’s safe to say that he’s a genuine expert.
As for Roger Michalski, he’s the publisher at Eagle Financial Publications, which appears to be owned by Eagle Products, LLC, the same company listed on Mark Skousen’s website, where he sells his services.
Mark Skousen’s latest forecast centers around rising inflation and interest rates, which the presentation suggests could lead to a less than desirable scenario for many people.
However, Michalski says Skousen is recommending a company (and options play) that could potentially help investors protect their wealth and profit from the situation.
My research suggests that the company being teased in the presentation is a natural gas and crude oil pipeline company called Enterprise Products Partners.
However, as mentioned, that’s just a guess based on the clues. So if you want to know for sure, the best option would be to check out Skousen’s service, TNT Trader.
Whatever you decide, I hope you found this post helpful.
Thanks for reading.