Keith Kohl’s latest Energy Investor pitch centers around what he’s calling “Black Winter,” a crisis that he predicts could cause “global blackouts” in the months ahead.
The whole thing was rather ominous, to say the least.
But according to Kohl, this could also be the “most profitable story of the decade.”
Here’s a snippet from the presentation:
“Make no mistake: ‘Black Winter’ is coming…
“Hitting every continent…
“Affecting every family…
“Mark my words: NO ONE is safe from what is coming in the next couple months.
“And according to my research, it could all culminate on February 17.
“On this day,over 70 nations will be at the highest risk of global blackouts.
“It will be the biggest, most concerning, and most profitable story of the decade…”Source: https://secure2.angelpub.com/o/web/477217
What’s he pitching?
In short, Kohl believes the situation he’s predicting could be a “huge opportunity for the U.S.” since it has an “abundant supply of cheap gas.”
And during the presentation, he pitched three U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) companies, which he says have “massive potential.”
The clues he shared about these companies were pretty vague, so I’m not sure what all three companies are. But I’m reasonably confident I know what two of them are.
So with that said, let’s unpack Kohl’s prediction!
Keith Kohl’s “Black Winter” Prediction
The basis of Keith Kohl’s “Black Winter” prediction is that a “number of factors” have converged to create what he believes could be the “biggest global energy shortage in history.” And he’s predicting that major global blackouts could result.
The whole thing reminded me of a stock teaser by Porter Stansberry that I wrote about yesterday dubbed the “Boston Blackout.” Not only is Kohl suggesting that we’re in the midst of a global energy shortage, but just like Stansberry, he points to LNG as the solution.
Before I get into that, however, let’s discuss the three main things that Kohl suggests have caused the “huge crisis” he sees unfolding, as these are central to his thesis.
The first so-called “black winter” “trigger,” as Kohl refers to it, relates to Kohl’s belief that Russia’s actions have led to increasing natural gas prices in Europe and the globe:
“Russia’s continued restriction of natural gas supply has sent prices skyrocketing to new highs…
“And has sparked fuel shortages across the globe.
“Countries are so desperate for supply that an international bidding war for gas has erupted…”
The second “trigger” Kohl discussed was the lack of investment in new oil and gas production, which is something other stockpickers have discussed recently as well.
Basically, Kohl argues that supply is not keeping up with demand due to underinvestment.
“Natural resources like oil, gas, and coal require massive upfront investments to bring these resources out of the ground.
“And these commodity-producing industries have suffered a record lack of capital investment over the years.
“Back in 2014, over $700 billion was invested into the oil and gas sector.
“Fast-forward to 2021, and the amount invested was just $341 billion.
“New investment has been cut by more than half, despite demand being higher today than it was then.”
Lastly, Kohl suggests that despite the push toward renewable energy like wind and solar, the “green economy” could take decades to materialize:
“Global leaders, universities, and even a few Fortune 500 companies have sold the world on a single idea…
“That one day we’ll all be driving EVs and the electricity from wind and solar will be the foundation of a wonderful green economy.
“That day may come, but it’s DECADES away. Not months or even years.
“And just how much will this mandated transition to renewables cost?
“Get a load of this incredible statistic:
“Matching the energy value of just two months’ worth of natural gas that Europe consumes would require building $40 TRILLION worth of batteries…
“Which would take all the world’s battery factories a combined 400 years to produce!”
That last stat made me stop and think because it’s pretty wild.
And I was very curious to know where he got it from.
So like any self-respecting sleuth, I looked into it, which led me to an article on city-journal.org by Mark Mills, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
I don’t know what calculations went into drawing the above conclusion, but the article I just shared appears to be the source of the statistic Kohl shared. So if nothing else, you might find that article worth a read if you want to further your research.
In any case, Kohl suggested in the presentation that the solution to the “crisis” he’s predicting is natural gas and pointed out that the U.S. is the largest producer of natural gas in the world.
However, as he also said, there are no pipelines from the U.S. to Europe and other parts of the world that the U.S. could sell its gas to. And that’s where LNG comes into play. He basically argues that this situation could be a “huge profit opportunity” for the U.S. because the price of gas is “cheap” in the U.S. but “higher just about everywhere else.”
“America is now the largest exporter of LNG in the world, surpassing Qatar and Australia.
“In other words, the U.S. is now the world’s biggest supplier of natural gas.
“You can think of America as an EMT, coming to the rescue of energy-deprived nations everywhere.
“That’s something Putin didn’t see coming. And it also presents you with a huge profit opportunity…
“Because the price of gas remains cheap in the U.S… and is higher just about everywhere else.”
And after explaining his thesis, Kohl teased three LNG stocks he likes.
What Are Keith Kohl’s 3 “Black Winter” Stocks?
Keith Kohl pitched three separate “black winter” stocks in the presentation, and in this section, I’ll show you what my research uncovered.
Pick 1: “America’s Powerhouse LNG Producer”
Here are the clues Kohl shared about his first pick:
“This first company produces LNG for shipment all over the world…
“It owns a massive LNG terminal, a multibillion-dollar facility that turns gas into liquid that can be moved overseas.
“And it’s one of the largest LNG production facilities in the world.
“As all of Europe pivots away from Russian gas imports, customers are flocking to this company in droves.
“For instance, the day after Russia invaded Ukraine, a French energy giant signed a five-year LNG supply deal with this firm.
“Its shipments to Europe are surging…
“And the company’s bottom line are surging right along with it…
“With revenues more than DOUBLING over the last year.”
So, we’re basically looking for a U.S. LNG company that signed a five-year export deal with a large French energy company in February of this year. We’re also looking for a company that managed to double its revenue over the past year.
Those are pretty specific clues, and I did come across a handful of potential matches for this one, but in the end, nothing was a strong match with all of those hints.
So I’m not sure what his first pick could be.
Pick 2: “The LNG Tanker King”
Here’s a summary of what Kohl said about his second pick:
“… it owns a massive state-of-the-art fleet of LNG tanker ships… the youngest fleet in the entire industry!
“Better still, these ships have a combined 54 years’ worth of LNG deliveries on backlog!
“This will provide the company with reliable, growing revenue streams for decades to come.
“The company has been making money hand over fist. It’s sitting on record cash with over $280 million in the bank.
“Better still, it LOVES to put that money directly into the pockets of its shareholders.
“The firm has raised its dividend by a stunning 1,150% in just the past three years, which I believe is poised to soar even higher.”
Those clues reminded me of a company that Alex Green of the Oxford Club teased recently, which he dubs the “New King of LNG.”
And sure enough, after checking back on what I wrote about that presentation, it seems Keith Kohl might be pitching the same company: FLEX LNG Ltd. (FLNG).
How does it match?
- For starters, FLEX LNG, a Bermuda-based company, owns a fleet of 13 “fifth generation LNG carriers.” And according to the company’s Q3 2022 investor presentation, the average “fleet age” of their ships is roughly three years as of the end of Q3.
- Second, the clues about the company having “54 years’ worth of LNG deliveries on backlog” and “over $280 million in the bank” were the same hints Alex Green dropped in the “New King of LNG” presentation I wrote about a month ago. I wasn’t able to verify the former clue, but the latter one matched at the time, and the overall conclusion I came to in that write-up was that Green’s pick was FLEX LNG.
- According to the company’s dividend history, it paid a $0.10 dividend in the third quarter of 2019 and a $1.25 dividend in the second quarter of 2022, which is a 1,150% increase.
So, my guess on this one is FLEX LNG.
Pick 3: “The Hidden LNG Safety Line”
Here are Kohl’s clues about his third pick:
“This American company is perfectly positioned to capitalize not just on Europe’s growing need for LNG…
“But also on the growing gas needs of South America, the Middle East, and Asia.
“That’s because it owns a stunning 20% of the world’s fleet of LNG ships.
“Plus, it owns plants that turn LNG back into regular gas for customers across the globe…
“With facilities across the world, from South America to India.
“And its revenues have DOUBLED in just the past year.
“The best part?
“Most investors — and most of Wall Street — have no clue this firm even exists.
“Why? Because this company just recently went public.”
Admittedly, figuring this one out was pretty much a fluke.
I wasn’t able to find any companies that own “20% of the world’s fleet of LNG ships.” But after looking into what U.S. LNG tanker companies recently went public, I came across this CNBC article that mentioned Excelerate Energy (EE).
Excelerate Energy, a Texas-based company that describes itself as a “leader in integrated LNG solutions,” went public in April 2022.
And upon looking at its financials on Yahoo Finance, the company more than doubled its revenue between 2020 and 2021. Its revenue has also more than doubled from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the third quarter of 2022.
So, while it’s unclear what specific time period Kohl’s referring to (since Angel Publishing doesn’t date their presentations), the revenue clue appears to match.
Furthermore, the company has global operations (another hint he shared), and while I’m not sure about the whole “20% of the world’s fleet” clue… the company states that it owns and operates “one of the largest fleets of FSRUs in the industry.”
For context, FSRU stands for Floating Storage and Regasification Unit, which marineinsight.com describes as a “special type of ship used for LNG transfer.”
So, while I’m not certain, Excelerate Energy looks like a possible match here.
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Keith Kohl’s “Black Winter” presentation centers around his prediction that we could see “global blackouts” in the months ahead due to what he describes as the “biggest global energy shortage in history.”
Unfortunately, I can’t foretell the future. So I have no idea if what he’s predicting will come about or not, much less when or what companies might benefit.
However, I do think he made some interesting points about LNG as a whole. And while I’m not sure what his first pick is, I’m reasonably confident that I’ve managed to uncover Kohl’s other two “black winter” picks, which we discussed earlier.
So with that said… I hope you enjoyed the post.
Be well, stay warm, and thanks for reading!