Whitney Tilson just released a presentation about a “$4 Inflation Stock” that he believes could “soar by 1,000% over the next couple of years” and even more long term.
He also claims it could help investors beat the current “surge in inflation,” overcome rising interest rates and survive the market volatility we’re seeing.
“This stock could soar by 1,000% over the next couple of years.
Over the long term, I could see you making 25x… 50x… even 100x your money.
It could help you beat the current surge in inflation…
Overcome rising interest rates…
And even survive the unprecedented market volatility that’s hitting investors so hard right now.”
It’s a bold prediction, but Tilson is supposedly so confident that if he had to invest his wife’s “full retirement account in one stock,” he says that “this would be the one.”
What’s he pitching?
In short, Tilson is teasing a synthetic biology (synbio) company, and he shares all the details in a report called “The $4 Inflation Stock That Could Change Your Life,” which comes with a subscription to his research service, Empire Stock Investor.
However, he dropped numerous clues about his pick in the presentation, so let’s see if we can figure out what Tilson’s recommending here.
Update (April 18, 2023): When I first published this post in May 2022, Whitney Tilson was teasing a “$4 inflation stock,” but he is now teasing this same company as a “$2 inflation stock” because it has gone down in price. What follows is my analysis of the original teaser, which is virtually identical to the new one (he’s just calling it a $2 stock now).
Unpacking Tilson’s “Inflation” (Synbio) Teaser
Most inflation-related presentations I’ve come across have focused on “hard assets” like commodities, real estate, precious metals, or bitcoin, for example.
In this case, however, Tilson’s inflation pitch centered around a “little-known stock” in the biotech space that he thinks could help investors “stay ahead of the inflation curve.”
“If you get in quickly before this little-known stock explodes, you can position yourself — without investing too much — to not only stay ahead of the inflation curve, but live the life of real freedom, that you deserve.”
Why does he think this stock will rally?
I can’t speak for Whitney Tilson, but based on the presentation, his prediction mostly relates to the innovation behind the technology the company uses. However, Tilson also said that, due to decreasing costs, this technology is “at its tipping point right now.”
“The economies of scale have started kicking in… and the price has plunged.
In fact, the cost of programming the ‘chip’ on which this technology runs has fallen so dramatically, it now costs one ten- millionth of what it cost just 20 years ago.
Which is why I say this technology is at its tipping point right now.
It could fully cross over any day now.
And when it happens… I believe the company will be in extremely high demand, and it will enter its hypergrowth phase.”
What “technology” is Tilson referring to?
The technology Whitney Tilson is referring to is synthetic biology (or SynBio for short), which is a multidisciplinary area of research that involves creating (or redesigning) “stuff” based on what already exists in nature.
As you might imagine, synbio is a very in-depth, nuanced topic.
And it’s not one I’m an expert on, either.
But my understanding is that scientists use DNA sequencing to essentially “map” the DNA of different organisms (i.e., anything living) and effectively redesign them.
Why? Well, as Tilson explained in the presentation, synbio could be used to help create or redesign new materials, medicines, food, fuels, products, and more.
“In fact, just like with Google, a new word was added to the dictionary to describe this game-changing tech – SynBio.
SynBio combines computer science with the most advanced technology on the planet – DNA software – to create new materials, new medicines, new fuels, new products, and more.”
I’ve come across numerous presentations lately that have discussed synbio and highlighted different examples of how this tech could be used to disrupt different industries.
And this isn’t the first time Tilson has discussed synbio, either. Earlier this year, I covered a similar presentation he released dubbed “America’s Next Big Monopoly.”
What company is he teasing?
According to Whitney Tilson, it’s a “$4 stock” that he claims is “at the forefront of this new industry” (i.e., synthetic biology).
“From plastic… to leather… to medicines… to tires… to semiconductor chips… to almost every other product we need and use… the possibilities are limitless.
No wonder Steve Jobs pinpointed this industry as the biggest innovation of our times.
And the $4 stock that I want to share with you today is at the forefront of this new industry.”
In the next section, I’ll walk you through the clues Tilson shared in the presentation and show you what company I think he’s recommending.
What Is Whitney Tilson’s “$4 Inflation Stock” Pick?
Whitney Tilson shared a lot of clues about his “$4 inflation stock” pick, and as I went through the presentation, it became clear that he’s teased this same company before.
To start with, Tilson discussed where the company began and who started it:
“Unlike most tech companies that started in somebody’s garage or basement… the seeds of this company were sown in what is widely regarded as America’s temple of science and technology: MIT.
The company was started by an MIT professor who started taking courses at the institute at the age of 14.”
Next, he discussed the company’s business model, which he likens to Amazon Web Services (AWS), suggesting that it’s a “behind-the-scenes” service that other companies use.
“Rather than competing directly with everyone, from Microsoft and Apple to Saudi Aramco, Johnson & Johnson, and the leaders in every industry…
This new company writes code for SynBio platforms specific to these giant businesses…
And with the help of the code, the companies can easily get synthesized raw materials that are far better and with less defects than the original raw material.”
“In essence, the business model is a lot like Amazon Web Services (AWS).”
“Without AWS’s behind-the-scenes services, most of these companies wouldn’t even be able to operate. AWS is absolutely essential to everything they do.
In much the same way, my research shows this company will provide behind-the-scenes services to some of the biggest companies on earth.”
“The company’s codebase is the world’s largest reusable, standardized genetic ‘parts list’ that includes proprietary code for developing proteins, enzymes, pathways, and cells.”
Another thing Tilson pointed out regarding the company’s business model is that it collects both an upfront fee and “royalty-based” revenue for the deals it makes with its customers.
“The best part about most of the deals this company makes with its customers is that the deals are both fee- and royalty-based.
Which means the company gets a lump sum of cash at the beginning of the deal…
And once the deal is done… the money never stops coming.”
From there, Tilson revealed that the company has “over 400 million proprietary codes” and that it “owns trade secrets” for many different materials, including vaccines, biofuels, fragrances, construction materials, leather, electrical components, and more.
“They already have over 400 million proprietary codes.
It owns trade secrets for almost every material in the world that can be synthesized.”
The clues didn’t stop there, either.
According to Tilson, the company went public less than a year ago, its revenue “recently quadrupled,” and has deals with companies all over the world. Aside from the U.S., he said the company has deals in Germany, Canada, Japan, and Australia.
And he revealed several companies it works with:
“It already has dozens of existing deals with enormous businesses like Bayer, Moderna, and Cronos…”
Lastly, he talked about who’s invested in the company, which according to Tilson, includes Bill Gates, Viking Global, Vanguard, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Ark Invest.
Based on those clues, it looks like Tilson’s pitching Ginkgo Bioworks (ticker: DNA).
And as a side note, Ginkgo is the “Quaternary Code” company Tilson pitched in the “America’s Next Big Monopoly” presentation I mentioned earlier. So assuming my guess is correct, this inflation-related teaser is essentially a rehash of his other pitch.
In any case, here’s an overview of why I think Ginkgo Bioworks is Tilson’s pick:
- For starters, the clues about what the company does and who’s running it match what Tilson described in the presentation. In short, Ginkgo Bioworks is a Boston-based biotech company that’s building a platform that enables its customers to program cells.
- According to a May 2021 article on medcitynews.com, Ginkgo has acquired 440 million proprietary gene sequences.
- The company was founded by MIT scientists, as Tilson suggested, has global operations in the countries he mentioned, and has deals with Bayer, Cronos, and Moderna (among others).
- Its stock is sitting at under $4 per share as of writing, according to Yahoo Finance, its revenue more than quadrupled recently, and the investors Tilson mentioned have all made investments in the company.
- It’s unclear to what extent the “royalty-based” revenue is part of the deals the company has with its customers, but this techcrunch.com article confirms that the company does earn royalty-based revenue, as Tilson suggests.
I could go on because there are numerous other clues Tilson shared in the presentation, but I have no doubt that Ginkgo is Tilson’s “inflation” pick as it matches up well.
Of course, that’s ultimately just a guess, so I can’t guarantee I’m right. And if you want to find out for sure what company Tilson’s teasing, the best idea would be to see his research report called “The $4 Inflation Stock That Could Change Your Life.”
Not only does that report show you what Tilson’s pick is, but it also walks you through why he’s bullish and what he’s recommending in more detail.
As mentioned earlier, however, the only way to access the report is to join his Empire Stock Investor service, which costs $49 for the first year if you join through the presentation.
Recommended: Go here to see my #1 rated stock advisory of 2023
Should You Join Empire Stock Investor?
Empire Stock Investor is Whitney Tilson’s flagship stock advisory service that’s focused on emerging trends, particularly in the tech and biotech space.
And while some of Tilson’s picks include smaller, more speculative companies, the Empire Financial Research website says the service mostly recommends U.S. large caps.
How does it work?
The way Empire Stock Investor works is like most other stock picking services out there. The general idea is to sign up for the service on the company website, which gives you access to Tilson’s latest investment insights and stock picks. And from there, you can decide which picks you want to follow and which ones to pass on.
How much does it cost?
If you join through the presentation we’ve been discussing, it costs $49 for the first year and automatically renews at $199 every subsequent year.
This gives you access to 12 monthly issues of Empire Stock Investor that show you his latest recommendations, updates on his picks, and research reports (among other resources).
Is it legit?
I’m not a member of Empire Stock Investor, so I can’t say if it’s a worthwhile service or not based on experience. However, I have looked into other presentations he’s released and wrote an in-depth piece on his 2022 predictions. So I am familiar with Whitney Tilson’s work, and nothing I’ve found suggests that it’s a scam.
As for Whitney Tilson, he’s the founder of Empire Financial Research, the company behind all of this, and a former hedge fund manager with over two decades of experience.
Nobody has a perfect track record, but based on what he said in this presentation (and others I’ve comes across), he’s recommended numerous winning stocks over the years. He’s also shared his insights on 60 Minutes and CNBC and authored numerous books.
Of course, as with any service, you could still lose money following the stock ideas you receive, and there’s no guarantee you’ll make money as a subscriber.
But Empire Stock Investor seems like a reputable service based on everything I’ve seen, and Whitney Tilson is a genuine expert.
The “$4 Inflation Stock” Whitney Tilson teases in his latest presentation is a biotech company in the synthetic biology space, which my research suggests is Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA).
I can’t guarantee my guess is correct, nor do I know if the company’s stock will go up or down in the years ahead. But I do share Tilson’s enthusiasm for the overall SynBio space, given the potential this technology has to disrupt countless industries.
Either way, I think it’s probably worth taking the presentation with a pinch of salt. There was a lot of talk about how life-changing one stock can potentially be, which may be true, but it’s also possible to lose money, especially with smaller, more speculative companies. So I wouldn’t rush into anything expecting to get rich overnight.
Nevertheless, at least now you have a good idea about what Tilson might be pitching, so I hope you found this post helpful.
And if you’d like to share your two cents on any of this, chime in below.
Thanks for reading.