Bill Bonner is the founder of one of the largest financial publishing companies in the world, Agora Inc., and he recently released a presentation detailing his latest prediction.
What’s it all about?
In short, Bill Bonner believes that two “powerful and unstoppable trends” could lead to what he describes as “America’s Nightmare Winter.” And he made several recommendations on how to protect and grow our money should his prediction unfold.
In this post, I’ll walk you through the key aspects of Bill Bonner’s prediction, reveal one of his recommendations, and give you an overview of the service he’s pitching, True Wealth.
Breaking Down Bill Bonner’s “4th and Final Warning” (“America’s Nightmare Winter”)
The July 2022 presentation I’ll be discussing in this post centers around Bill Bonner’s “4th and final warning” and was launched on the Stansberry Research website.
I normally don’t watch the videos of these presentations; I prefer to read the transcript as I find that’s a better way to research the stock picks.
But since Bill Bonner is essentially the “godfather” of the stock picking newsletter industry, and I’ve never seen one of his pitches, I decided to watch the video out of curiosity.
In a nutshell, Bill Bonner believes that two main things are going to cause problems for America in the months and years ahead: an energy crisis and inflation.
Based on the presentation, Bonner believes that the energy crisis is being caused by a premature push toward green energy (i.e., solar and wind) and underinvestment in fossil fuels (like oil and natural gas).
And as for inflation, he suggests that the Fed printing money and government spending are contributing to inflation, which could get much worse.
Together, Bill Bonner believes that these two “runaway freight trains” (as he calls them) will cause huge problems and that the U.S. has “entered a new era.”
“We are 100% convinced America has entered a new era… a new regime.
“America’s two runaway freight trains… the mandated switch to green energy… and soaring money printing, borrowing, and inflation…
“Will cause huge problems… and much, much higher prices.”
Source: https://secure.sjuggerudtruewealth.com/?cid=MKT650099&eid=MKT655003&sid202=1076681&assetId=AST250766&page=2
Long story short, Bill Bonner believes this situation could lead to “America’s Nightmare Winter,” which involves higher prices, potential starvation, and even revolution.
“It doesn’t matter what tricks the White House, the U.S. Treasury, or the Federal Reserve are using… or how they spin it…
“America is about to experience one of the greatest inflationary periods in world history.”
[…]
“And this destruction of the currency, coupled with the rejection of the real source of our own wealth (our massive and cheap energy reserves)… will result in what I call: ‘America’s Nightmare Winter.’
“Unfortunately, this all leads not just to high prices…but potentially to starvation and perhaps even some form of revolution.”
That’s a pretty somber prediction, to say the least.
And worth noting is that, during the presentation, Bill Bonner specifically predicted that “oil will go to $500 a barrel” before “this cycle” is over.
“Before this cycle is over, oil will go to $500 a barrel. That’s in part because of more inflation and more money printing (the dollar could fall by another 50% from here), and in part because the government has essentially ended new oil and natural gas exploration.”
It’s unclear what Bill Bonner meant by “this cycle,” but the overall message was that he believes the U.S. will see much higher inflation and shortages going forward.
Why should we care?
Well, as I always point out when I write about this sort of thing, nobody has a crystal ball. So it’s entirely possible that his prediction won’t happen.
But in the presentation, Bill Bonner said that he has made three prior predictions that have all turned out to be true. First, he says he predicted the Japanese stock market crash in the 1980s, then the dot com bust in the late 1990s, and finally, the financial crisis of 2008.
“My first big call was back in the 1980s, when I warned folks of the imminent Japanese stock crash.”
[…]
“My next big warning concerned the ‘dot.com’ Internet companies of the late 1990s. Again, I was right on the mark.”
[…]
“Then came my third warning in 2005-2007, when I saw a massive bubble in mortgage finance and real estate.”
Of course, that doesn’t mean his latest prediction will be right, but he does appear to have made some accurate predictions in the past. And his prediction about “America’s Nightmare Winter” is his “fourth and final warning.”
It wasn’t all doom and gloom, though.
Bill Bonner specifically stated that he’s NOT predicting the end of America. Instead, he believes this is more like the beginning of a “new era.”
“This is not the end of America. But it is definitely a new era. It is definitely the end of America as you have known it for the past 50 years.”
And as for what he’s recommending… Bill Bonner discussed four recommendations that he and his team have come up with in the presentation, which you can learn about in four research reports that come with a subscription to Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth service.
So yes, in case you had any doubts, it all leads to a pitch for a paid service. But that is almost always the case with these types of presentations, so that didn’t surprise me.
What did somewhat surprise me was what his third recommendation involved, which I’ll discuss in the next section.
What Is Bill Bonner Recommending?
Bill Bonner discussed four recommendations in the presentation, which he described as “steps” people could take to “protect and grow” their money “in the years to come.”
And each recommendation relates to one of the following reports:
- “Buy The Best Assets Now Soaring in Value”
- “A Unique Way to Protect Your Wealth”
- “The Secret Currency – How to make 500% from the U.S. Govt’s second currency”
- “The Art of Speculation”
The first report centers around “one group of assets” that Bill Bonner says are “making a massive move up” even though many stocks have been falling.
The second report is about a “secret” Bill Bonner says he’s learned that offers investors “essentially the best way to get serious money outside of the U.S. dollar.”
Third, Bonner teased a “unique way to buy gold and silver that has nothing to do with gold or silver bullion.” And apparently, it has “nothing to do with the stock market.”
And the fourth report centers around “speculations” that Bill Bonner says that his analyst, Tom Dyson, believes “have the potential of returning 1,000% or more.”
What are his picks?
Given the lack of clues, I wasn’t able to uncover all four recommendations. But Bill Bonner shared numerous tangible clues about his third (aka “secret currency”) recommendation, which is actually a recommendation from Steve Sjuggerud of Stansberry Research.
Here’s a summary of the main clues Bill Bonner shared about this:
“The next move I suggest you make is another idea from Steve Sjuggerud… he discovered this strategy about 20 years ago and has helped thousands of people learn how to take advantage of it ever since.”
[…]
“From 1972 to 1974, this investment rose 348%, according to an index that keeps track of it. At the same time, stocks dropped more than 30%.
“From 1976 to 1980, while the S&P 500 plummeted 35%, this investment realized 1,195% profits.
“And between 1987 and 1989, investors who took advantage of the secret currency saw profits of 665%.”
[…]
“Steve tells me the last time Salomon Brothers included this vehicle in its annual investment survey, this investment ranked No. 1 over the prior 20-year span, with an annual return of 17.3%. In other words, it was the single most profitable thing you could do with your money over those 20 years.”
My research of the above clues led me to this Stansberry Research article written by Steve Sjuggerud, which details an investment that matches Bill Bonner’s clues.
In short, the article talks about investing in “rare gold coins,” and in particular, Sjuggerud talks about a so-called “hybrid coin,” which, from what I understand, is essentially a cross between bullion and numismatic coins.
“Then there is a third type of gold coin… The ‘hybrid coin,’ I call it. And this is what I like. These coins have characteristics of both bullion and numismatic coins, but they’re not really either. The typical Saint-Gaudens is a prime example of the hybrid…
“Saint-Gaudens dating from 1924-1928, for example, have a high collectible value, yet they are easy to buy and sell. Like bullion coins, there are enough of them to go around, plus they contain just under an ounce of gold.”
Source: https://stansberryresearch.com/investor-resources/education-center/chapter-8/the-secret-currency-of-rare-gold-coins
I’m not an expert on gold coins, much less “rare” gold coins, but if you read the above article, I think you’ll find that this is undoubtedly the “secret currency” Bill Bonner’s referring to.
As for whether or not that’s a good idea, I can only speculate.
I was once a “gold bug,” as they say, but then I started learning about bitcoin and have come to the conclusion that it’s a superior long-term store of value. I also think bitcoin is a much better solution to the problems Bill Bonner outlined in the presentation than gold.
Nevertheless, if you want to learn more about Bill Bonner’s (and his team’s) recommendations, you’d need to join the True Wealth service because that’s the only way to access the four research reports I mentioned earlier.
Recommended: Go here to see my #1 rated stock advisory of 2024
Should You Join Sjuggerud’s True Wealth Service?
True Wealth is a Stansberry Research stock advisory service edited by Steve Sjuggerud focused on value investing. In short, the service centers around the idea of buying unloved investments that are “cheap” and selling if/when they go up in price.
Here’s how Bill Bonner describes it:
“… Steve and his team show you the best investments in the world that are cheap, hated, and moving in an uptrend.”
How much does it cost?
Joining the service costs $49 for 12 months if you sign up through the presentation.
And as a subscriber of True Wealth, you get the research reports mentioned earlier, monthly investment ideas and insights from Steve Sjuggerud, and access to other resources like the model portfolio.
Also, as part of Bill Bonner’s presentation, subscribers also get access to a second service called Bonner Private Research for 12 months.
As for whether or not you should join, I think that ultimately depends on what type of service you’re looking for. True Wealth is essentially focused on value stocks, and Bonner Private Research shares monthly analysis from Bill Bonner and others he works with.
I’m not a member of either service, so I don’t know if they’re worth it or not, but both Steve Sjuggerud and Bill Bonner have been in the stock advisory space for many years. And the site states the service has a 30-day refund policy in place.
Whatever you decide, I wouldn’t expect to get rich overnight following their recommendations, but you may gain some useful insights and ideas as a member.
Bottom Line
Bill Bonner’s latest prediction (dubbed his “fourth and final warning”) was very ominous, but I also found it interesting to get his perspective on things.
Based on the presentation, Bonner believes that inflation will get much worse and that the U.S. could see increased shortages and even social unrest in the future. He also believes that oil could reach $500 a barrel, which would be unprecedented.
As for what he and his team are recommending, that appears to be a mix of stocks and commodities. Bill Bonner didn’t share many clues in the presentation, and I haven’t read the reports, but one of his recommendations appears to involve gold coins.
I have no idea if his predictions will play out or not since I can’t predict the future. But considering some of Bill Bonner’s past predictions, it will be interesting to see how things play out in the years ahead.
In any case, I hope you found this helpful. And I’m keen to hear your thoughts, too. So if you’d like to add your two cents, share a comment below. Thanks for reading.
Thinks my friend I appreciate your knowledge. I’m taking every word serious and passing it on to my children for the future is worse then the dirty 30’s they tell me. I’m a country girl so I know how to get by but will that be enough? Thanks so much!
While I appreciate your insight to the presentation I also appreciate your honesty about not having read the reports therefore cannot accurately predict their validity. This article was written in August and the midterms had not occurred. Even though the red tsunami did not materialize, how do you feel the predictions will be changed?
I have no idea how the predictions might change, if at all. But if the presentation is still being teased, then I would assume that Bill Bonner is still predicting an oil price rise (which was the main takeaway I got from his pitch – rising energy prices).
Also, as an update, I ended up joining Steve Sjuggerud’s True Wealth service after writing this post, which is where you get access to the reports Bonner mentioned.
Bonner teased four reports in total, and because I didn’t join the True Wealth service through that particular presentation, I didn’t get access to the second and fourth “special reports” listed above. I’m assuming that’s why I can’t find them in the member’s area, anyway. Nevertheless, I did get access to the other two reports, and I *think* that the report associated with Bill Bonner’s $500 oil prediction is the one called “Buy the Best Assets Now Soaring in Value.”
I could be wrong, but it seems that way. And all three oil and gas ETFs mentioned in that report are still shown as “buy” ratings in the model portfolio as of writing.
I can’t reveal the tickers since it’s a paid service, but hopefully, that helps in some way. Also, you can see my review of True Wealth if you want to know more about that service.
The current agenda of the Democrats has already put the United States in a perilous position with a lack of diesel fuel we could see empty shelves very quickly the portion of his presentation that deals with the energy grid I think it’s very realistic it may be more extreme than we would expect certain areas he says will have blackouts that’s already happening.
not one helpful word of advice just scaremongering
IT IS MY BELIEF THAT PLANET EARTH’S HUMANS WILL EVENTUALLY KILL THEMSELVES INCLUDING ALL VEGETATION. IT APPEARS IT IS ALREADY HAPPINING.
GOLD, BONDS. CASH WILL NOT HELP AS HUMANS ARE GETTING TOO GREEDY AND SPOILED.
THEY EVENTUALLY WILL BEND OVER AND KILL THEIR A__ GOOD BYE.
People cannot survive in a depression on stocks, bonds, gold, etc.
During all the sacrifices we went through in Word War 2 and beyond (yes I’m that old)
the rich and pore became equal. Cash, gold, bonds did not put food on the table or heat homes. Those that knew how to grow and preserve food and other ways to heat homes were the best survivors.
Monitory possessions were useless.
Always be prepared – through away those useless “how to” books.
I see no mention of a possible change in the White House, as if Democrats would continually govern the US henceforth. Cheap USD means American products become more attractive, thus increasing exports. If inflation in the US gets e tremendously high, what about the rest if the world?? The American people need to boycott Chinese products, many of which cause cancer (read the box prior to purchasing) and kill jobs! Sorry, but the sales pitch is undeniable and does not take into account the current world dynamics, such as crypto currency.