In a Stansberry Research presentation titled “The #1 Gold Play for 2022,” Bill Shaw claims that there’s a “virtually unknown” $6 gold investment you could use to make “substantial gains” as gold soars higher.
According to Bill Shaw, it’s “by far the #1 way to get rich in gold today.”
At first, I thought he might’ve been teasing a gold mining stock. But as the presentation continued, he said his pick “has nothing to do with bullion, ETFs, or mining stocks.”
So, I did some research to find out what his number one gold investment is. And in this post, I’ll show you everything I learned about his stock pick. I’ll also show you what the Commodity Supercycles service is about, the advisory he pitches in the presentation.
Bill Shaw’s “#1 Gold Play for 2022” Stock Pick Revealed
Bill Shaw began the Stansberry Research presentation by talking about how gold has outperformed the market over the past six months and how he believes gold could “skyrocket even higher in the weeks and months to come.”
Specifically, he says he expects gold to hit $2,000 at the end of 2022 and possibly reach $5,000 or higher “in this new bull market.”
“Not only do I expect gold to hit $2,000 by the end of 2022…
But I think it’ll likely keep going, soaring far beyond $3,000… possibly reaching $5,000 or higher in this new bull market.”
Why does he think gold will keep going up? Based on what Bill Shaw says in the presentation, his prediction relates to how (he claims) investors are “loading up” on gold.
According to Bill Shaw, “many of the most powerful, well-connected, and smartest investors in the world are loading up on gold in unprecedented ways.”
He also claims that central banks are stacking gold “by the pallet.”
“The world’s biggest investors – richer and more powerful than all the world’s billionaires combined – are stacking gold in their vaults by the pallet.
Can you guess who I’m talking about?
It’s the world’s Central Banks.”
Specifically, he states that the world’s central banks bought 463 tons of gold in 2021, almost double what they bought in 2020.
Is that true? Yep… according to the World Gold Council, central banks added 463 tons to global gold reserves in 2021, which was 82% higher than the previous year.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the price of gold will go up, but this seems to be what Bill Shaw’s overall gold price prediction is largely based on – increasing demand.
And instead of buying gold, he claims there’s a “much better way to profit from the emerging gold boom.” According to Shaw, this “virtually unknown” gold strategy returned 38% per year for 18 years during one period and helped preserve wealth during a recession.
“During one period, for example, this virtually unknown gold strategy returned 38% per year!
And not just for a year or two…
This incredible investment returned an average of 38% a year – for 18 straight years…”
“Even during the Great Recession, when the stock market lost 37% in 2008, this approach preserved investors’ wealth – and even gained more than 50% – despite the fact that gold bullion barely moved.
In short, the investment I’m about to show you may be one of the world’s most profitable and low-risk investments – yet it’s still virtually unknown.”
What “virtually unknown gold strategy” is Bill Shaw talking about?
Bill Shaw reveals that the “virtually unknown gold strategy” he’s referring to was pioneered by a Canadian named Pierre Lassonde, who discovered gold mining royalties.
“The virtually unknown gold investment I want to tell you about was pioneered by a Canadian named Pierre Lassonde.”
“In short, the secret Lassonde discovered was ‘Mining Royalties’ – that is, simply a right to receive a percentage of production from a lucrative gold mine.”
What is a gold mining royalty?
A gold mining royalty company essentially bankrolls gold miners in return for a cut of the mine’s future gold production.
The company doesn’t mine anything itself; it simply buys the right to receive a percentage of the mining company’s future revenue or precious metal production.
On the one hand, royalty companies have lower overhead costs, meaning higher potential profit margins. And they can buy the rights to many individual mines, which can potentially reduce the company’s overall risk given it’s not relying on any one mining operation.
So, this can be a great strategy for investors.
However, as this article on CFI points out, there are risks involved.
The main risk the article highlights relates to how royalty companies need lots of cash to buy royalty streams. This capital is often raised through new stock issuance (which dilutes existing shareholders) or taking on debt (which can reduce the company’s profitability).
So there are pros and cons to consider when it comes to gold royalties, as with any type of investment. I recommend checking out the above article if you want to learn more. It’s an interesting read and shows you both sides of the coin, so to speak.
Nevertheless, that’s what Bill’s presentation centers around – a gold royalty stock.
And as a side note, Bill Shaw pitched this same business model in a different presentation I wrote about where he talked about his $4 “battery royalties” nickel stock pick. So if you want to see what other stocks he’s teased in the past, check that out.
In any case, let’s look at what company he’s talking about this time…
What’s Bill Shaw’s $6 gold royalty stock (AKA “#1 Gold Stock”) for 2022?
The main clues Bill Shaw revealed about his top gold stock is that it’s a Canadian gold royalty company with around 25 employees that went public in 2007. He also shared some clues about the person who runs the company. But other than that, he didn’t reveal much.
Here’s a summary of the main clues Bill Shaw provides in the presentation:
“One of my favorite royalty streams is based out of a humble office park in Canada.
They only have about 25 employees… far less than a typical McDonald’s.
Yet they’re able to rake in $84 million a year. And ever since 2007, participation in this stream has been open to the public.”
“It’s led by a man who grew the world’s largest silver royalty outfit into a multibillion-dollar company.
This experienced team helped form a brand-new royalty company – which uses the same investor-friendly business model as Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold. They now own royalties on mines in Brazil, Turkey, Mongolia, Argentina, Canada, and the United States, just to name a few.”
After doing some research, the closest match seemed to be a company called Metalla Royalty & Streaming, but that doesn’t seem like a match after taking a closer look.
So, I kept on digging and eventually came across Sandstorm Gold (SAND), which I think is a match based on the clues he shares in the presentation.
Here’s an overview of why I think his pick is Sandstorm Gold:
- Sandstorm Gold is a Canadian gold royalties company that was first listed on the TSX Venture Exchange in 2007. Today, it’s listed on the NYSE under ticker SAND and it’s currently trading for just under $8 per share. However, it was trading at around $6 per share in February, which is the date the presentation was put together.
- My research suggests that the company has around 25 employees.
- The company’s annual revenue has been close to the figure Bill Shaw mentioned, but not exact (the company earned just over $89 million in 2019). The only mention of “$84 million a year” I could find is in this Yahoo Finance article, which suggests that this was the company’s revenue for the 2019 fiscal year. I’m not sure why Shaw would use an old revenue figure, but it might have something to do with the next point.
- It appears as though Bill Shaw first teased this stock in 2019 and then again in 2020. So it seems as though this presentation is the latest version of an older presentation.
- According to the Sandstorm Gold website, the CEO ran Silver Wheaton Corp before co-founding Sandstorm Gold. And while he was there, he developed the company’s silver streaming business and raised more than $1 billion.
- Finally, Sandstorm Gold has operations in all of the countries Bill Shaw mentioned.
So, I believe Sandstorm Gold (SAND) is Bill Shaw’s “#1 Gold Stock” of 2022.
Of course, that’s just a guess. The only way to know for sure is to read Bill Shaw’s report (The #1 Gold Stock to Buy in 2022). And the only way to access that is to sign up for a Commodity Supercycles subscription. So let’s look at what this service is all about.
What Is Commodity Supercycles?
Commodity Supercycles is an investment research service published by Stansberry Research and edited by investment guru Bill Shaw.
The focus of the newsletter is to help subscribers find profitable investments in the commodities sector, and it costs $49 for the first 12 months if you join through the presentation.
For that, you get access to Bill Shaw’s latest commodity-related stock picks. For example, things like energy companies, mining stocks, and royalty companies. All of which is contained in the monthly newsletters and research reports.
As with most services, there’s also a model portfolio so you can see what positions Bill Shaw has already recommended that are still active and updates on his recommendations.
Lastly, you get access to the following reports as part of Bill Shaw’s gold thesis:
- The #1 Gold Stock for 2022: This report details his top gold royalty pick which as we discussed earlier, I think is Sandstorm Gold.
- The Silver Trade: This report shows you why Bill Shaw believes silver could outperform gold and which silver stocks he believes could “soar in the months ahead.”
- The Secret Currency: This report supposedly shares a “secret” investment Bill Shaw describes as a “form of gold and silver that has nothing to do with mining stocks, mutual funds, options, futures, or bullion.”
How well has the service performed?
According to the Stansberry Research presentation:
“Keep in mind, the average annualized return in 2020 for Commodity Supercycles was 18.8%. This return measures the results achieved by all of our recommendations in 2020, scaled to a one-year period.”
Is it legit?
Commodity Supercycles is definitely a legitimate subscription. It’s published by Stansberry Research which is one of the most well-known financial publishing companies in the space.
It also comes with a 30-day refund policy.
That said, there are two things I think are worth mentioning.
First, there’s no guarantee the service will help you make money. This is true for any service, though, so it doesn’t make it any less credible. But it can be easy to get excited and forget that it’s possible to lose money following someone’s stock picks.
Second, according to the order page for the service on the Stansberry Research website, Commodity Supercycles automatically renews at $199 after 12 months. As with the first point, this doesn’t make it a scam, but I did think it was worth mentioning because some people might assume it costs $49 per year, every year. And that’s not the case.
Recommended: Go here to see my #1 rated stock advisory of 2022
Who Is Bill Shaw?
According to Bill Shaw, he’s the “hard-asset analyst” at Stansberry Research.
Aside from heading up the Commodity Supercycles service, he also runs Stansberry’s Gold & Silver Investor, a similar service but one that’s focused on precious metals.
According to his profile on the Stansberry Research website, Bill Shaw was a land development manager for residential homebuilders before becoming a stockpicker. And he holds a Bachelor of Science degree in environmental resource management.
From what I can gather, he doesn’t have an extensive finance background but does seem to be an expert when it comes to natural resources and commodity investing.
The “virtually unknown” investment strategy Bill Shaw teases in the presentation is investing in gold royalty stocks. And his “#1 Gold Stock for 2022” appears to be Sandstorm Gold.
As is often the case, the only way to find out for sure is to join a paid service, which in this case is Commodity Supercycles. But this service isn’t very expensive and gives you access to more than one stock pick. As a subscriber, you get access to many of his commodity-related investment ideas and the research he’s done on the companies he recommends.
So it could be worth checking out aside from learning more about his top gold royalty pick.
Either way, I hope this post has been helpful.
And if you’d like to share your thoughts on any of this, feel free to comment below.
Update (September 15, 2022)
In a September 2022 Stansberry Research presentation, financial reporter Amy Gamper gave what is essentially the same pitch as Bill Shaw regarding the “#1 Gold Stock for 2022.” And as it turns out, Bill Shaw is no longer listed as the editor of Commodity Supercycles on the Stansberry Research website. I have no idea why, but whatever the case may be, the “#1 Gold Stock for 2022” pitch is now presented by Amy Gamper.